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Mortgage Rates Rise for Sixth Straight Week

U.S. mortgage rates rose for a sixth week, extending a surge in interest costs spurred by speculation that the Federal Reserve will scale back stimulus efforts.

The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage climbed to 3.98 percent, a 14-month high, from 3.91 percent last week, McLean, Virginia-based Freddie Mac (FMCC) said in a statement. The average 15-year rate increased to 3.1 percent from 3.03 percent.

Borrowing costs have jumped in past month, pushing buyers to lock in deals before rates climb even further. Home-loan applications increased for the first time in five weeks, the Mortgage Bankers Association said yesterday. The group’s refinancing index gained 5 percent in the period ended June 7, while the purchase gauge advanced 4.7 percent.

“Mortgage applications for home purchases have built a bottom and are grinding higher,” John Herrmann, director of U.S. rate strategy at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities USA Inc. in New York, said yesterday in a note to clients. “Sales to investors and all-cash deals have accounted for a significant portion of home sales over the past two years. Going forward, the true recovery in housing needs to be led by households purchasing homes on margin.”

At the current 30-year average, monthly payments for a $300,000 loan would be about $1,429, up from $1,322 in early May, when borrowing costs hovered near record lows.
Housing Expectations

Rising demand for a tight supply of listings is fueling price gains. U.S. home prices in April jumped 12.1 percent from a year earlier, the most since February 2006, according to CoreLogic Inc., an Irvine, California-based data provider.

While increasing rates may damp home sales temporarily, “we do not think it will derail the recovery,” Michelle Meyer, a senior U.S. economist at Bank of America Corp. in New York, wrote yesterday in a note to clients. “A powerful counter to rising rates is the improvement in expectations about the housing market, as well as low inventory.”

Mortgage rates have been following a surge in 10-year Treasury yields, which touched an almost 14-month high on June 11 amid concern that the central bank may slow purchases of U.S. government debt as the economy improves.

The record rate for a 30-year loan is 3.31 percent, reached in November, according to Freddie Mac. The 15-year average fell to a record-low 2.56 percent last month.

SOURCE: Bloomberg

Signed Contracts to “Buy US Homes” at a 3 Year High

The number of Americans who signed contracts to buy homes ticked up in April to the highest level in three years. The increase points to growth in home sales in the coming months.

The National Association of Realtors said May 30 that its seasonally adjusted index for pending home sales rose 0.3 percent to 106. That’s the highest since April 2010, when a homebuyer tax credit inflated sales.

Signed contracts have jumped 10.3 percent in the past 12 months. There is generally a one- to two-month lag between a signed contract and a completed sale.

Home sales and prices began to recover last year and have been buoyed by steady job gains and low mortgage rates.

Sales of previously occupied homes rose in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.97 million, a 3 ½-year high. Sales of newly homes also rose in April, to nearly a five-year high.

Still, the supply of homes on the market remains low and that could keep sales from accelerating later this year. The number of available homes for sale rose in April, the Realtors’ group said last week, but was still down 14 percent from a year earlier.

Fewer homes for sale may be holding back sales in tight markets out West, such as Las Vegas and Phoenix. In those cities, many homeowners still owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth.

The trend showed up in the April pending home sales report. Signed contracts to buy homes soared 11.5 percent last month in the Northeast and 3.2 percent in the Midwest. But they fell 7.6 percent in the West and 1.1 percent in the South.

Still, the tighter supply is also pushing up home prices. That could encourage more people to put their houses on the market. The Standard & Poor’s/Case Shiller 20-city home price index this week said prices rose in March nearly 11 percent over the past 12 months. That’s the fastest pace in seven years.

And a limited supply of homes has made builders more willing to ramp up construction. Applications for building permits rose in April to the highest level in nearly five years.

Mortgage rates, meanwhile, jumped this week to their highest levels in a year. That means potential homebuyers are facing higher costs.

Still rates remain relatively low by historical standards. The average rate for a 30-year mortgage rose to 3.81 percent, up from 3.59 percent last week, according to mortgage buyer Freddie Mac. The record low of 3.31 percent rate was reached in November.

SOURCE: Associated Press

What Rising Rates Mean for the Mortgage Market

The refi boom may be coming to an end. Since the Federal Reserve began pushing down rates in early 2009, refinancing has accounted for more than half of all new mortgages and in some periods has represented almost 80 percent of all new loans. Now, with the economy slowly recovering and the Fed considering pulling back its efforts to keep interest rates low, rates are climbing. Mortgage rates rose above 4 percent last week for the first time in more than a year, sending refi applications down to their lowest level since November 2011.

Refis have been a cash cow for banks. In a note out today, Moody’s (MCO) analyst Megan Snyder says fewer refis means banks will see less revenue, both because volume is down and because margins are shrinking. How banks respond to rising rates changes the game for borrowers.

ChickenFor a while, many banks will absorb some of the impact of rising rates by reducing how much profit they make on each loan. Their margins on mortgages reached record highs in 2012, so they have room to trim them to keep business coming in and still be making money. “In the short term, everybody will be playing a game of chicken to see if rates go back down,” says FBR Capital Markets analyst Paul Miller.

If rates don’t go down soon, banks may start laying off staff from the huge operations they built up to process the refis. Compass Point’s Kevin Barker says this will be especially true for smaller lenders, who will have to choose if they focus their staff and capital on other types of lending, such as business loans or credit cards.

That same quest to replace refi revenue could lead banks to be more lenient in approving new mortgages for buying homes. “In a lower-volume environment, given the capacity out there, you will see some people loosening up credit,” Miller predicts. He says banks won’t lower standards as much as they did in the housing bubble. The average FICO scores for new loans could drop from about 750 to as low as 710, he says. Making mortgages somewhat easier to get would help the housing market rebound—which could help the economy and further push up rates.

SOURCE: Bloomberg

CRAZY TIMES AGAIN: Home Sales Heat Up & Buyers Resort to Cold Cash

LOS ANGELES — Bidding wars sound almost quaint. These days, the only way for would-be buyers to secure a home, it often seems, is to offer all cash and be ready to do so within hours, not days.

The bursting of last decade’s housing bubble feels like ancient history here, where first-time home buyers are competing with investors to get into single-family homes with prices approaching $1 million.

im_not_crazy_large_mug“It’s everyone from a kid out of law school to an investor from China, walking around with thousands to spend,” said Kameron Eliassian, a Los Angeles real estate agent. “I don’t know where it’s coming from, and I don’t care. Just show me proof that it’s there, and we’re good.”

After saving money for years, waiting for the residential real estate market to hit bottom, buyers all over the country appear eager to get back in, lured by low interest rates and the prospect of a good deal.

But with the number of homes for sale at historically low levels and large investors purchasing thousands of properties, buyers are facing a radically changed market and prices are quickly rising.

The percentage of homes bought with cash has shot up in many markets across the nation. Nearly a third of all homes purchased in Los Angeles during the first quarter of this year went for all cash, compared with just 7 percent in 2007. In Miami, 65 percent of homes sold were for cash deals, compared with 16 percent six years ago.

People are realizing we’ve probably hit bottom, but the kinds of spikes we’re seeing in places like California seems like history is repeating itself

The prices on all-cash deals are also rising significantly. In Los Angeles, the median price on an all-cash home this year is about $351,000, compared with $230,000 in 2009. Over the same period, the median price over all increased to $410,000, up $85,000. In fact, last month, home prices in Southern California hit their highest level in the last five years.

All-cash buyers, typically investors eager to renovate and quickly resell or rent out homes, are making it more difficult for first-time buyers, who typically rely on mortgage loans that can take weeks or months to materialize. More California homes have been flipped in the last year than in any year since 2005.

And while Los Angeles may be a center of the frenzy, it is not an anomaly. Buyers in Boston are offering $100,000 more than the asking price or placing offers on homes they have spent only minutes in. In San Francisco, Miami and Phoenix, sellers are looking at dozens of offers within days of putting their home on the market, often accompanied by letters from would-be buyers professing their love for the property. New York City has seen similar drops in inventory, and prices have been rising steadily since 2009.

Shortly after Andres Alvarez, 36, got married last fall, he began to look for a home with his wife, figuring that their steady jobs, savings and good credit would make them the perfect buyers in Los Angeles. They were ready to spend $700,000. Their optimism deflated quickly.

“We thought we were the cream of the crop, but anything that was in our price range and move-in ready, there was this insane competition,” Mr. Alvarez said. They put in nearly a dozen bids, often losing to cash buyers, before finding a two-bedroom home for $650,000. “It might be a great time to buy, but it’s a horrible time to be a buyer,” he said.

A year ago, people didn’t want a deal, they wanted a steal – Sellers were listing homes for less than what they originally paid for them and offering all these concessions.

Now, the only concessions are coming from the buyers.

Dick and Susan Yost can vouch for that. They wanted to downsize while leaving their home in Cambridge, Mass., to their son and his family. “We bid on eight places before we finally got one,” Mr. Yost said. “The worst we bid was $85,000 over the asking price, and we didn’t get it.”

Even unappealing homes, he said, had “people all over them.”

Still, there are plenty of skeptics wondering how long the sharp price increases can last.

“People are realizing we’ve probably hit bottom, but the kinds of spikes we’re seeing in places like California seems like history is repeating itself,” said Daren Blomquist of RealtyTrac, which monitors residential sales. “That’s not sustainable for the long term, at least not for the regular home buyer, so I think there are some warning flags there.”

For agents who spent the last several years scrounging for business, the change is welcome. When Mr. Eliassian listed a three-bedroom home in the Hollywood Hills for $699,000 this year, he worried that the current renters would make it difficult to schedule prospective buyers. But with just two open houses — one meant only for other agents — nearly 300 people came through.

“I had to turn the phone off to avoid people asking to see the place,” Mr. Eliassian said.

Within the week, he had six offers, and the home sold for $745,000. He said he had represented and sold homes to more cash buyers in the last year than at any other time in his career.

Lewis Legon, a developer in Salem, Mass., jumped into the Boston market after he saw how many people were showing up at open houses. “It was like Times Square,” he said of one open house, at a property listed for $1.5 million. He beat out two dozen other bidders by offering $1.8 million in cash, not the first time he had made an all-cash offer.

“The first time I was ready to have a heart attack,” he said of all-cash buy. “But it makes you a more attractive buyer and helps you stand out.”

He also waived the inspection clause, an increasingly common practice. While offers have typically included appraisal clauses, allowing buyers to back out if the home was valued below what they were willing to pay, offers today are more likely to include escalation clauses, saying buyers will pay an additional amount over the highest bid.

“Buyers are taking a lot more risks than they ever would before,” said Dana DeSimone, a Boston real estate agent who called the current market an “insane asylum.” “I don’t know that I’ve ever heard of waiving the inspection contingency on a 150-year-old brownstone until now.”

Now, agents say their biggest challenge is potential sellers who are wary of putting their home on the market because they fear they cannot find a place to buy.

Jeff and Lorena Leininger considered moving from their suburban Los Angeles home over the last several years, but they feared they would not get as much as they paid for it. But this year, with their youngest child getting ready for kindergarten, they decided it was time. Three days after showing the home, they had nine offers.

“It felt as crazy as it was back when we bought 10 years ago,” Mr. Leininger said. “But it was much worse on the other side. We would show up to an open house, and it was already sold. The clear message was: be ready to move fast or just get left out.”

Even in Florida, where the market was once swamped with foreclosures, there are signs of the latest boom, with cash purchases fueled in part by international investors and retirees awash in cash after selling their homes elsewhere.

Don Faught, a manager with Alain Pinel Realtors near San Francisco, said the current market is turning buyers to desperation, particularly because the turnaround has come so quickly.

“A year ago, people didn’t want a deal, they wanted a steal,” he said. “Sellers were listing homes for less than what they originally paid for them and offering all these concessions. Now, the only concessions are coming from the buyers.”

His office has begun to track the number of offers clients make before landing a property. The current record: 27 offers, nearly all at or above asking price.

SOURCE: NYTimes

Case-Shiller Indices Show Strongest Gain Since 2006

Home prices posted their strongest year-over-year gain in almost seven years in March, as the 10- and 20-city indices rose 10.3 and 10.9 percent according to the Case Shiller Home Price Indexes released Tuesday. The national index, reported quarterly, was up 10.2 percent, also the sharpest year-year gain since 2006.

Prices increased in 15 of the 20 cities surveyed, falling in two and unchanged in the remaining three.

Mores details to follow.

Existing-Home Sales, Prices Jump to Multiyear Highs

Existing-home sales rose 0.6 percent in April to an annual sales rate of 4.97 million, the highest level since November 2009, the National Association of Realtors reported Wednesday. Economists had expected a 1.6 percent increase to 5.0 million from March’s original report of 4.92 million sales. March sales were adjusted upward to 4.94 million.

The median price of an existing single-family home jumped $8,900 in the month to $192,800, the highest since August 2008.

Home Prices Are Going Up in Hailey Idaho

The inventory of homes for sale rose to 2.17 million—its highest level since last September. The supply of homes for sale rose to 5.2 months, the highest since October. The inventory has been a persistent concern to realtors who say the low supply of homes for sale has reduced the number of transactions.

But inventory has edged up consistent with the increase in the median price of an existing-home, which has increased in five of the last six months. The number and months supply of home for sale has gone up for three straight months.

The monthly NAR report—which tracks closings—increased despite a drop in the NAR’s pending home sales index (PHSI) two months ago. The PHSI tracks contracts for sale. The increase in closings was consistent though with the improvement in builder confidence reported last week by the National Association of Home Builders, which said its Housing Market Index increased in May for the first time this year. Homebuilders reported an increase in buyer traffic meaning more people shopping for homes.

According to the NAR data, April home sales were up 9.7 percent over sales a year earlier, a slightly slower improvement than the 10.8 percent year-over-year gain reported for March. The median price also showed a modestly slower year-over-year gain, 11.0 percent for April, than recorded for March, 11.6 percent.

After falling to a cyclical low in August 2010, existing home sales had been improving steadily-helped by the federal homebuyer tax credit program until seeming to plateau since last November.

Monthly sales since November have averaged 4,943,000, up from 4,657,000 in the preceding six months and 4,467,000 from November 2011 through April 2012.

Although the sales pace fell short of forecasts, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun described the housing results as “robust” and said the “market recovery is occurring in spite of tight access to credit and limited inventory.”

Distressed homes—foreclosures and short sales—accounted for 18 percent of April sales, down from 21 percent in March and 28 percent in April 2012, the NAR said. Eleven percent of April sales were foreclosures, and 7 percent were short sales. Foreclosures sold for an average discount of 16 percent below market value in April, while short sales were discounted 14 percent compared with March when foreclosures sold for an average discount of 15 percent while short sales were discounted 13 percent.

The smaller discounts for foreclosures and short sales in the last month suggests some market firming.

The median time on market for all homes was 46 days in April, down sharply from 62 days in March, and is 45 percent faster than the 83 days on market in April 2012, according to NAR. Forty-four percent of all homes sold in April were on the market for less than a month, while only 8 percent were on the market for a year or longer.

First-time buyers, the NAR said, accounted for 29 percent of purchases in April, compared with 30 percent in March and 35 percent in April 2012.

All-cash sales were at 32 percent of transactions in April, up from 30 percent in March; they were 29 percent in April 2012.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast rose 1.6 percent to an annual rate of 640,000 in April and are 4.9 percent above April 2012. The median price in the Northeast was $245,100, up 3.4 percent from March and 5.1 percent from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest fell 3.4 percent in April to a pace of 1.12 million but are 9.8 percent above a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $149,300, up 5.7 percent from March and 6.7 percent from April 2012.

In the South, existing-home sales rose 2.0 percent to an annual level of 2.01 million in April and are 14.9 percent above April 2012. The median price in the South was $168,700, the highest level since August 2008, and 4.1 percent higher than March and 10.6 percent above a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the West increased 1.7 percent to a pace of 1.20 million in April and are 4.3 percent above a year ago. The median price of an existing home in the West rose to $263,600 in April, up 2.6 percent from March and 17.5 percent from April 2012.

SOURCE: DCNews

Wells Fargo, Citigroup Halt Foreclosure Sales

Wells Fargo (WFC) and Citigroup (NYSE:C) have halted the vast majority of their foreclosure sales in multiple states following the release of new guidance by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

The abrupt slowdown came in response to the OCC’s April release of minimum standards for foreclosure sales, which are usually the final act in the foreclosure process. The Federal Reserve issued identical guidance to the banks it oversees, making the guidelines universal for the industry.

Within two weeks of the release of the guidance, Wells Fargo, Citi and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) all but stopped foreclosure sales, which are usually the point of no return in the foreclosure process. JPMorgan has since resumed its normal volume.

The OCC guidance is significant because it applies to all OCC-regulated bank servicing

The halt is most dramatic with Wells, the nation’s largest mortgage originator. The bank’s foreclosure sales in five Western states — California, Nevada, Arizona, Oregon and Washington — dropped from as many as 349 a day in April to fewer than 10 a day across the entire region, according to Foreclosure Radar, a California real estate monitoring firm.

“Wells Fargo has temporarily postponed certain foreclosure sales while we study the revised guidance from the OCC,” a spokeswoman for the bank wrote in response to questions from American Banker. The bank expects the delay will be brief.

A spokeswoman for Citi said that the bank is “in the process of complying and following the directive.” JPMorgan acknowledged that it temporarily halted foreclosure sales “out of an abundance of caution,” but says it has resumed them after validating that its processes comply with the OCC guidance.

The OCC acknowledged that some banks had drastically cut back on foreclosure sales. It declined to say if its April guidance was the result of new perceived shortcomings in the industry.

“The OCC did not direct a slowdown or pausing,” agency spokesman Bryan Hubbard says. “However, if servicers are not certain they are meeting these standards, pausing foreclosures is a responsible and productive step.”

The significance of the banks’ move is hard to gauge. New foreclosure filings continue unabated, searches of court records in California and Florida suggest.

It is not clear what — if any — specific concerns caused the banks to rein in sales. But the banks’ steps are an echo of the 2010 foreclosure halt that kicked off several years of wrenching procedural scrutiny of the mortgage servicing industry.

The robo-signing debacle “was the only other time we’ve had a similar event where a bank slowed down significantly,” says Sean O’ Toole, Foreclosure Radar’s founder.

Among the major largest servicers, Bank of America is the only bank which has proceeded as usual following the OCC guidance, according to Foreclosure Radar’s data. That is a reversal from 2010, when it was the first bank to halt foreclosure proceedings following allegations of documentation problems.

The OCC guidance is significant because it applies to all OCC-regulated bank servicing, rather than specific consent orders. Most of the requirements — presented in a list of 13 questions banks should ask themselves before selling a home — are remedial. Question No. 1, for example, is “Is the loan’s default status accurate?” Question No. 5 asks whether borrowers are protected from foreclosure by bankruptcy. Question No. 7 asks if the borrower is in an “active trial loss mitigation plan,” otherwise known as a modification.

“Failure to comply with this guidance may result in unsafe and unsound banking practices, non-compliance with foreclosure related consent orders, as applicable, and/or require rescission of completed foreclosures,” the OCC warned.

Neither Wells nor the OCC identified specific areas of concern for the bank. But Wells has faced scrutiny of its foreclosure handling, most recently from New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman. At a heavily publicized press conference earlier this month, Schneiderman alleged that Wells Fargo had “flagrantly violated” its obligations to homeowners under a 50-state mortgage servicing settlement.

“There have been problems with Wells’ servicing for a long time,” says Ira Rheingold, executive director of the National Association of Consumer Advocates. “Everybody focuses on Bank of America (BAC), but Wells has just as much trouble and the OCC is obviously serious about having them comply with the consent orders.”

Wells has been the target of intense criticism for several years from consumer advocates, who forced CEO John Stumpf off the stage during a speech in March, protested at his home and urged the OCC to give Wells a failing Community Reinvestment Act grade based on its foreclosure practices.

Wells also has invited criticism from consumer advocates for failing to provide principal reductions and to report data on loan modifications, short sales and foreclosures based on race and income.

The bank has disputed those complaints. Wells says it should be judged on the nearly 850,000 loan  modifications it has granted since 2008, which included $6.6 billion in principal forgiveness.

Joseph Smith, the independent monitor of the national mortgage settlement, is expected to issue a report in June. Many consumer advocates have criticized the top five mortgage servicers — B of A, JPMorgan Chase, Citi, Wells Fargo and Ally — for claiming to have met 304 different servicing standards and reforms as part of the $25 billion national settlement with 49 state attorneys general and federal regulators.

“It’s a safe assumption that they’re not meeting all the requirements and this is likely a preview, an early signal of what Joe Smith is going to find,” Rheingold says.

SOURCE: American Banker

US Home Prices Up 10.5 Pct. in Past Year – Idaho Ranks 4th

WASHINGTON — A survey shows U.S. home prices rose 10.5 percent in March compared with a year ago, the biggest gain since March 2006.

Core Logic, a real estate data provider, said Tuesday that annual home prices have now increased for 13 straight months. Prices are rising in part because more buyers are bidding on a limited supply of homes for sale.

Idaho ranked 4th at a 14.5 percent gain

Prices increased in 46 states over the past year — 11 of them posting double-digit gains. And when excluding distressed sales, which include foreclosures and short sales, prices rose in every state. A short sale is when a home sells for less than what is owed on the mortgage.

Nevada led all states with a 22.2 percent annual gain. It was followed by California (17.2 percent), Arizona (16.8 percent), Idaho (14.5 percent) and Oregon (14.3 percent).

Home prices also rose 1.9 percent in March from February, signaling a solid start to the spring buying season. And 88 of the 100 largest cities reported price gains compared with a year earlier, down slightly from 92 in February.

Prices in Phoenix rose 18.8 percent in March from a year earlier, the largest gain of any city. Los Angeles, Riverside, Calif., Atlanta and Houston posted the next largest gains.

Steady job creation and record-low mortgage rates have boosted home sales and construction in the past year. More demand, along with a limited supply of homes for sale, has pushed prices higher.

The number of homes for sale fell nearly 17 percent in March compared with a year ago. That supply would be exhausted in about 4.7 months at the current sales pace. That’s below the 6 months of supply that is typical in a healthy market.

Rising home prices can help sustain the housing rebound and lift the economy. More potential homebuyers may seek to purchase a house before prices rise further. And homeowners are more likely to put their houses on the market once they expect a good price.

Higher home values also boost Americans’ overall net worth. That can encourage consumers to spend more, driving more economic growth. Consumer spending accounts for roughly 70 percent of economic activity.

SOURCE: Associated Press

Affordability Remains High, Despite Price Gains

Low mortgage rates and stabilizing incomes are keeping home affordability high and giving home buyers “ample buying power,” according to the National Association of REALTORS®.

You only need an income of $36,500 to buy a house at the median price

Hailey Idaho Real Estate Listing Search @ Hallmark Idaho PropertiesThe Wall Street Journal highlights the following example on just how affordable housing has become: “Assuming a 5 percent down payment, a 3.5 percent mortgage rate, and 25 percent of a gross income devoted to mortgage payments, a buyer would only need an income of $36,500 to buy a house at the median price. With a 10 percent down payment, the required salary falls to $34,600, and with a 20 percent down payment, it falls to $30,700.”

In the first quarter, the median family income nationwide was $62,200.

Housing affordability remains high despite recent reports that show home prices in 150 U.S. cities saw their biggest year-over-year gains in more than seven years, according to NAR’s most recent report, reflecting data from the first quarter of 2013. The median price of a single-family, existing home was $176,600 in the first quarter of this year, an increase of 11.3 percent from year ago levels, NAR notes.

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How the Case-Shiller Home Price Index Works

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index is one of those terms you hear a lot because it’s used to measure the health of the U.S. housing market—which hasn’t actually been healthy since the bursting of an enormous national and global real estate bubble in 2008.

While various government measurements also measure the housing market, the Case-Shiller Index is widely considered the most authoritative. CNBC explains.

What is the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index?

The Case-Shiller Index (as it is commonly known), tracks changes in the value of residential real estate, both nationally and in 20 metropolitan regions.

It is composed of these separate indexes:

  • The national home price index, covering nine major census divisions.
  • The 10-city composite index
  • The 20-city composite index
  • 20 individual metro area indexes for each of the cities in the indexes above

Which cities that make up the indexes?

The Composite 10 Index cover Boston, Chicago, Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, South Florida, New York, San Diego, San Francisco and Washington.

The Composite 20 Index includes those cities, plus Phoenix, Tampa, Fla., Atlanta, Detroit, Minneapolis-St. Paul, Charlotte, N.C., Cleveland, Portland, Ore., Dallas/Fort Worth and Seattle.

Who are Case and Shiller?

Karl E. Case is an emeritus economics professor at Wellesley College. Robert J. Shiller is an economics professor at Yale University.

How did the index get started?

In the 1980s, Case developed a method for comparing repeat sales of the same homes in an effort to study home pricing trends, using data from house sales in Boston—which at the time was in the midst of a housing boom.

Case argued that the boom was unsustainable, but he didn’t consider it a bubble, a commonly used term to describe similar market trends. (The Dutch Tulip Bubble of the early 1600s is the most popular example of a bubble.)

Eventually, Case collaborated with Shiller, who was researching behavioral finance and economic bubbles. In the late 1980s they created a repeat-sales index using home sales price data from cities across the country.

Then in 1991, Allan Weiss, studying for a graduate degree under Shiller, persuaded Case and Shiller to form a company, Case Shiller Weiss, to produce the index with the intent of selling the information to the markets.

Fiserv, an information management company, bought Case Shiller Weiss in 2002 and, together with Standard & Poor’s, developed tradeable indexes based on the data for the markets—now called the Case–Shiller Index. (Weiss went on to found Market Shield Capital in 2006.)

When is it published?

The indexes are published on the last Tuesday of each month, with a two-month lag.

Many of these price indexes—including 20 cities, low- medium- and high- tier home price indexes, condominium indexes and a U.S. national index—are managed by Standard & Poor’, and are available to the public on Standard & Poor’s web site. Options and futures based on the Case–Shiller index are traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

How do they come up with the indexes?

They use what is called the “repeat sales method,” analyzing data on single-family properties with two or more recorded sales transactions. The data are accumulated in rolling three-month periods to offset any delays in sales data recording and to keep sample sizes large enough.

For each sales transaction, a search is conducted to gather information on any previous sale of the same property. If an earlier transaction is found, the two are paired and considered a “repeat sales transaction.”

Each sales pair is examined to eliminate factors that might distort the calculations, including:

  • Transfers between family members
  • Substantial physical changes to the property
  • Transactions in which the property type designation has changed
  • Suspect data

Sales pairs with approved data are combined with all other sales pairs found in a particular Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) to create the regional MSA-level index. The Metro Area Indexes are then combined to create the national composite.

SOURCE: CNBC